A Hybrid GA-PSO Optimized Machine Learning Framework with Strategic Data Augmentation for Early Autism Spectrum Disorder Detection and Risk Factor Analysis
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Date
2023-06-30
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Abstract
This research presents a robust machine learning framework for the early detection of Autism
Spectrum Disorder and the analysis of its associated risk factors. The study leverages a
comprehensive dataset of 288 individuals, encompassing behavioral, developmental, familial, and
socio-demographic attributes. Five machine learning classifiers—Support Vector Machine,
Decision Tree, Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, and Logistic Regression—were
implemented and enhanced through a novel two-pronged approach. First, a true hybrid Genetic
Algorithm-Particle Swarm Optimization technique was employed for superior hyper-parameter
tuning, significantly boosting model performance. Second, strategic data augmentation was
performed using Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks combined with boundary
sampling to effectively mitigate data scarcity. The optimized Random Forest model achieved
exceptional performance, with an accuracy of 98.85% and an Area Under the Receiver Operating
Characteristic Curve of 0.9989. The synergistic combination of GA-PSO optimization and data
augmentation proved transformative, enabling multiple models to achieve perfect classification
metrics of 100% accuracy on augmented datasets. Model robustness was rigorously validated
through stability analysis across multiple data splits (70:30, 75:25, 80:20) and, critically, on a
completely unseen test set, where the best model maintained a high accuracy of 94.1%. Beyond
predictive performance, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify and rank the most
influential risk factors. "Limited Speech" emerged as the most critical predictor, followed by
parental age at childbirth (i.e., "Mother age at childbirth" and "Father age at childbirth") and key
developmental milestones such as "Ability to walk" and "Ability to respond when called by name".
This study conclusively demonstrates that the integration of hybrid metaheuristic optimization and
strategic data augmentation creates a highly accurate, reliable, and generalizable tool for early
ASD screening. The framework provides a practical solution for overcoming data limitations in
clinical settings and offers data-driven insights into key risk factors, thereby supporting earlier
intervention and informed clinical decision-making.
Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental condition characterized by
social interaction challenges, restricted interests, and repetitive behaviors. Early detection is
critical for timely intervention, yet conventional diagnostic methods are often subjective, time
consuming, and inaccessible in low-resource settings. This research develops a robust machine
learning-based framework for ASD detection using a multidimensional dataset of 288 individuals
aged 3–27 years, encompassing behavioral, developmental, health, familial, and socio
demographic attributes. Five classifiers—Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Random
Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, and Logistic Regression—were implemented and further enhanced
through hybrid Genetic Algorithm–Particle Swarm Optimization (GA-PSO) for hyper-parameter
tuning. To overcome data scarcity, Conditional Tabular GAN (CTGAN) with boundary sampling
was employed for synthetic data augmentation. The optimized and augmented models achieved
significant performance improvements, with Random Forest enhanced by GA-PSO yielding near
perfect accuracy (>98%, AUROC ≈ 0.999). Rigorous validation, including stability analysis across
multiple data splits and testing on a completely unseen dataset, confirmed the model’s reliability
and generalizability. Sensitivity analysis identified and ranked key risk factors, with limited
speech, parental age, and developmental milestones emerging as dominant predictors. This
integrated framework demonstrates the potential of hybrid optimization and augmentation
strategies to deliver an accurate, scalable, and clinically meaningful screening tool for ASD,
bridging the gap between machine learning innovation and real-world healthcare needs.